Fed Funds Rate Changes Don’t Presage Mortgage Rate Changes

The recent drastic reductions again emphasize (once again) that changes in the federal funds rate are not correlated with changes in the 30 year fixed mortgage rate. In the last 4 months the discount rate has been reduced nearly 200 basis points, while 30 year fixed mortgage rates have fallen 18 basis points.

I have update my article showing the historical comparison of 30 year fixed mortgage rates and the federal funds rate. The chart shows the federal funds rate and the 30 year fixed rate mortgage rate from January 2000 through April 2008 (for more details see the article).

graph of fed funds rate and mortgage rate

It is surprising to me how incorrect beliefs about what predicted federal funds rate cuts will mean for mortgage rates are so common when the data makes it clear that such beliefs (I should wait because the fed is going to cut the fed funds rate and so if I wait my mortgage rate will be lower) are unwarranted. But I should not be this type of behavior goes on all the time, inside organization and outside them.
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China Outsourcing Manufacturing to USA

Chinese firms bargain hunting in U.S.

Liu is investing $10 million in the Palmetto State, building a printing-plate factory that will open this fall and hire 120 workers. His main aim is to tap the large American market, but when his finance staff penciled out the costs, he was stunned to learn how they compared with those in China.

Liu spent about $500,000 for seven acres in Spartanburg — less than one-fourth what it would cost to buy the same amount of land in Dongguan, a city in southeast China where he runs three plants. U.S. electricity rates are about 75% lower, and in South Carolina, Liu doesn’t have to put up with frequent blackouts.

About the only major thing that’s more expensive in Spartanburg is labor. Liu is looking to offer $12 to $13 an hour there, versus about $2 an hour in Dongguan, not including room and board. But Liu expects to offset some of the higher labor costs with a payroll tax credit of $1,500 per employee from South Carolina.

“I was surprised,” said the 63-year-old president of Shanxi Yuncheng Plate-Making Group. “The gap’s not as large as I thought.” Liu is part of a growing wave of Chinese entrepreneurs expanding into the U.S. From Spartanburg to Los Angeles they are building factories, buying companies and investing in business and real estate.

True this is still a relatively small macro economic factor. However, it is growing. The primary push so far is economic – not a move to lean manufacturing (as far, as I can tell) to put manufacturing close to the customer. What is the biggest factor? The USA is spending more than $400 billion every year more than it produces. The only way to consume more than you produce is to borrow (and take an obligation to pay back those that lend you money) or sell the stuff you own to those that are producing more than they are consuming. China is producing more than $200 billion more than it consumes every year.

For decades foreigners have taken debt from Americans that promise to pay back later (to pay for what they consumed). Now many are deciding that these debts are not attractive investments and are looking to own productive assets in the USA (companies, factories…). Which is smart on there part in my opinion.

Related: The Budget Deficit, the Current Account Deficit and the Saving DeficitMoving Jobs to Silicon Valley from India$2,540,000,000,000 in USA Consumer DebtHow to Keep the USA ManufacturingTop 10 Manufacturing Countries 2006

Warren Buffett’s 2004 Annual Report:

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Posted in China, Economics, Manufacturing | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Toyota Execution Not Close to Being Copied

The Open Secret of Success

Toyota’s innovations, by contrast, have [focused] on process rather than on product, on the factory floor rather than on the showroom. That has made those innovations hard to see. But it hasn’t made them any less powerful.

At the core of the company’s success is the Toyota Production System, which took shape in the years after the Second World War, when Japan was literally rebuilding itself, and capital and equipment were hard to come by. A Toyota engineer named Taiichi Ohno turned necessity into virtue, coming up with a system to get as much as possible out of every part, every machine, and every worker. The principles were simple, even obvious – do away with waste, have parts arrive precisely when workers need them, fix problems as soon as they arise. And they weren’t even entirely new – Ohno himself cited Henry Ford and American supermarkets as inspirations. But what Toyota has done, better than any other manufacturing company, is turn principle into practice. In some cases, it has done so with inventions, like the andon cord, which any worker can pull to stop the assembly line if he notices a problem, or kanban, a card system that allows workers to signal when new parts are needed.

Very true, except one thing. Toyota’s innovation is not limited to process and execution. Toyota’s long term vision results in very dramatic innovation (that granted is not getting the press today – check back in 20 years, I think you will be reading about it then). For some examples see: Toyota’s Partner Robot, Toyota as Homebuilder, Toyota Engineers a New Plant: the Living Kind and The Birth of Prius.

A company truly driven by a focus on continual improvement, respect for all employees and reasonable executive compensation might be a company serious about adopting Deming and Toyota management principles. It is hard for me to imagine such a situation that doesn’t truly seek, as the primary aim of the organization, to benefit many stakeholders (workers, owners, suppliers, customers…) not just executives (or just executives, board and owners…).

Related: Toyota Management Develops the New CamryBetter and DifferentDeming and ToyotaToyota Keeps ImprovingMore Positive Press for Toyota ManagementGood Execution is Important

Posted in Deming, Innovation, Lean thinking, Management, Management Articles, Popular, quote, Toyota Production System (TPS) | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

I Don’t Know

Guest post by David Kerridge (originally posted to the Deming Electronic Network):

This is part of a series in which I recall striking or thought-provoking things that W. Edwards Deming said, but did not put into his books.

I remember taking a manager to his first Deming 4-day seminar. Afterwards my friend said to me “I was very impressed with that man. He said ‘I don’t know.'”

Something in our culture makes us ashamed to admit ignorance. We expect quick, slick answers, whether from politicians, managers, or consultants.

Deming said “I don’t know” more often than anyone I have ever known. Sometimes you heard the answer about two years later, in his seminar.

I also remember him saying “I have learned more in the last six months than in the previous ten years.”

Maybe one quotation explains the other.

Related: Dr. Deming quotesInstant PuddingDeming on being Destroyed by Best EffortsWhere to Start Improvement

Posted in curiouscat.com, Deming, Management, Psychology | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Clifton Gorge State Nature Preserve in Ohio

photo of Tree at the Clifton Gorge State Nature Preserve
The Clifton Gorge State Nature Preserve in Ohio is quite a nice short hike. Photos by John Hunter. If anyone knows what the green beetle is please add a comment.

I visited the preserve last year. Other sites from the trip include: Rocky Gap State Park, Maryland and Coopers Rock State Forest, West Virginia.

More photos: Rocky Mountain National ParkMount Rainier National ParkCapital Crescent Trail (Washington DC)

photo of a green beetle
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Management Improvement Carnival #34

Please submit your favorite management posts to the carnival. Read the previous management carnivals.

  • Introduction to Factorial Designs by Jonathan Mendez – “I like the idea of velocity in marketing — test, learn, test, learn, test. Instead of one large test I prefer focusing attention on certain areas or elements to achieve deeper understanding.”
  • MIT’s Message about Lean Enterprise Transformation by Mark Edmondson- “1. Market leaders are good at embracing enterprise change; 2. Enterprise change requires a holistic approach that engages all stakeholders. This includes employees, suppliers, customers, unions, and investors/owners”
  • Two Types of Bottleneck by David J. Anderson – “I now teach that there are two types of bottleneck: capacity constrained resources CCRs; and non-instant availability resources”
  • Oranges, Pebbles, and Sand by Ron Pereira – “In this video my daughters and I demonstrate how meeting an objective is just the beginning to improvement.”
  • Why errorproof when you can double-check? – “If you are in the position to prevent the error in the first place, why wouldn’t you? And, I’d argue, if you can write a tool to detect the screw up – ie, it is possible to programmatically figure out that the template is wrong,”
  • Systems and Improvement by John Dowd – “Thus did Deming, over sixty years ago, show a basic model about how to think about quality and improvement.”
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Management Seminar in Colorado

The Deming Institute is sponsoring, How to Create Unethical, Ineffective Organizations That Go Out of Business, 12-14 May, 2008 in Colorado Springs, Colorado. Kelly Allan and John Hunter will be presenting the seminar. Please let me know if you sign up.

Twenty-seven faulty management and corporate governance practices create most of the problems in any organization. These practices will be identified, and better practices recommended. It will be shown that as better practices are introduced, quality of products and services increases, costs decline, and you create a globally competitive advantage for your organization.

Learn how governance practice leads to the heaviest losses, how inconsistencies between policy and strategy create sub-optimal outcomes, how mismanagement of people leads to unethical and ineffective behavior, and how to overcome these problems. Study the theory and practice of management. Not quality management, not good management, not excellent management, not knowledge management, not risk management, not process management, not performance management, not supply or asset management, not technology management, not time management, not emergency management, just plain management.

Related: Deming on ManagementCurious Cat Management Improvement CalendarDeming Seminar and ConferenceDeming Companies

Posted in Management | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Post Number 1,000

This is the 1,000th post to the Curious Cat Management Improvement Blog. Here are some highlights:

Posted in curiouscat.com, Deming, Health care, Management, Manufacturing | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

2007 Baldrige National Quality Award

2007 Baldige awardee representatives in the Oval Office

The Baldrige National Quality Award winners for 2007 are:

President Bush met with winners for the first time since 2000, I believe (photo from Coral Springs web site). He did in private this year in the Oval Office. The Baldridge award had more prestige in the management community 10 years ago. In my opinion the award has failed to attract the best managed companies to apply.

When you purport to recognize the highest level of management excellence you should understand that leaving out those companies that are widely seen as excellent calls into question the credibility of the award. I can understand the challenge in convincing many potential applicants to apply. I would say that is the same challenge companies have that want to convince potential customers their solution is what the customer should purchase.

ARDEC provides a public version of their application (some details removed) that is interesting. ARDEC received the President’s Award Quality in 2000. From 1998 to 2002 the President’s Quality Award recognized management excellence in the federal government based on a Baldrige-style system (it was then switched from Baldrige-style to generic “excellence”).

Related: 2005 Baldrige AwardVice President Presents Baldrige Awards (2004)Problems with Lean Manufacturing Awards2007 Shingo Prize for Excellence in ManufacturingManagement excellence in governmentDeming Prize 2007

Posted in Management, Public Sector | Tagged | 1 Comment

Toyota Canada CIO on Genchi Genbutsu and Kaizen

What’s driving Toyota Canada’s success? – CIO reveals all

for Hao Tien, chief information officer (CIO) at Toyota Canada Inc. those two Japanese phrases – Genchi Genbutsu (go and see) and Kaizen (continuous improvement) really capture it all.

the innovation wasn’t in the technology, but in the way the various partners were brought together to agree upon processes, which were then consistently executed. CustomerOne is only project of its kind in the Toyota empire.

A computer system links activities across multiple customer touch points, and analyzes data from the more than 13,000 daily service visits to Toyota dealers across the country. The system flags major repeat problems and Toyota Motor Corp. head office in Japan is informed so engineers can be assigned to make repairs to designs or manufacturing, if necessary.

“For instance if a call comes into us at Toyota Canada, the dealer knows about it. So if they go back to the dealer for services, everyone offers the same resolution of the problem.” In the four years since its launch CustomerOne was has been a runaway success. Tien cites some of the more tangible benefits this initiative has brought about. They include:

* Cutting down the customer problem resolution from weeks to an average of three days through this initiative alone;
* Early detection of customer dissatisfaction in services
* Reducing detection of product defects (from months to days).

The Toyota Canada CIO talks about the tremendous business benefits from this seamless freeflow of information. “When a defect is detected at the dealership, the next day it would up to our engineering department.” The speed at which information traverses is of immense value – especially when new vehicles are launched. Tien cited an example.

“We recently launched a new Toyota Corolla [model]. If there were a problem with a door knob of the vehicle, the plant would know about it and a fix would be put in place.”

An article well worth reading. Related: Toyota IT OverviewLessons from Toyota’s IT StrategyGood Customer Service Example at ToyotaSoftware Supporting Processes Not the Other Way Around

Posted in IT, Lean thinking, Management, Management Articles, Toyota Production System (TPS) | Tagged , | 3 Comments