Manufacturing Jobs Data: USA and China
Posted on April 7, 2006 Comments (6)
Manufacturing Productivity and the Shifting US, China, and Global Job Scenes-1990 to 2005 (working paper – July 2005) by William Ward, Clemson University:
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I find that 100% of the (3.0 million) manufacturing jobs lost since 2000 were lost to manufacturing productivity growth and that 100% of the (1.8 million) jobs that should have been added back by GDP growth in the US after 2000 were shifted to other sectors of the US economy than manufacturing.
In this paper he is examines the factors leading to a reduction in manufacturing job worldwide. He concludes that job losses are mainly due to increased manufacturing productivity (worldwide, manufacturing productivity is increasing and jobs are decreasing – including China).
Manufacturing output is also increasing worldwide, most notably in China, but also in the USA (which many seem to neglect when they talk about things like the “eroding manufacturing base in the USA”).
So 10-20% of manufacturing jobs disappeared worldwide from 1995 to 2002. China lost between 17% and 34%; the US lost 11.4%.
I have to be careful because I believe productivity gains are the main reason for decreasing number of manufacturing jobs (that is just what seems right to me) so I am very ready to accept claims that the data shows that this is true. Nevertheless, William Ward makes the case well.
Manufacturing as Percent of Total Civilian Employment, 1990 and 2004 (2003 for UK and France) as well as Productivity Growth and Employment Changes.
| Country | 1990 | 2004 | 1992-2003 productivity growth | 1992-2003 change in manufacturing jobs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 18.0% | 11.8% | 57%* | -13.6 |
| Japan | 24.3% | 18.3% | 54.3% | -25.7% |
| China (estimates – see paper) | 60.0% | -18.0% | ||
| Germany | 31.6% | 22.7% | 35.1% | -21% |
| United Kingdom | 22.3% | 14.9% | 35.9% | -18.1% |
| France | 21.0% | 16.3% | 58.0% | -10.9% |
* US productively gains estimated based on 1990-2003 figures in the paper
Based on charts in the paper (based on Comparative Civilian Labor Force Statistics, 10 Countries, 1960-2004 and Output per hour in manufacturing, 15 countries or areas, 1950-2004
As an epilogue to his paper, he states: “I end this paper with an appeal for the multilateral organizations to commit themselves to the task of providing researchers and policy analysts with datasets capable of reflecting the full extent of global economic relations.” I agree. It is difficult to find good data to get a clear picture of global manufacturing especially since these shifts are taking place with ever greater speed.
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6 Responses to “Manufacturing Jobs Data: USA and China”
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July 6th, 2006 @ 7:40 pm
The constant mention of the erroding manufacturing sector on the USA I believe leads many to think it is shrinking and small. Yet output continues to increase and the share of worldwide manufacturing output is holding steady…
August 16th, 2006 @ 8:37 am
[...] Manufacturing employment is not shown in this data but in, Global Manufacturing Job Data, we explored data showing it is decreasing globally while manufacturing output continues to increase globally. The United States is losing manufacturing jobs more slowly then the rest of the world (and China has lost far more manufacturing jobs than the USA, from 1992-2003). by curiouscat Tags: Manufacturing, Economics, Data Permalink to: Manufacturing Value Added Economic Data [...]
September 3rd, 2006 @ 7:43 pm
[...] This article does a good job of explaining why “quality/lean…” should not be viewed as just process improvement, and innovation as something separate. I agree [...]
September 23rd, 2006 @ 3:38 pm
[...] Focusing on manufacturing output and jobs and their importance to the economy makes sense. However, I think people need to update the model they use to set expectations of manufacturing job levels. And given a world in which no countries seem able to do gain manufacturing jobs, it seems more reasonable to expect a continuation of decreased jobs and increased output until that worldwide trend changes. [...]
October 15th, 2006 @ 8:08 am
[...] It is also one of the few articles to acknowledge that manufacturing production is up while manufacturing employment is down. [...]
November 24th, 2006 @ 12:04 pm
[...] Growing an economy to create huge numbers of even decent jobs is very difficult, especially when starting from where China and India were in 1990. Often the strength of China’s economy blinds people to the continued great difficulty. Good jobs are the lifeblood of an economy. China has lost far more manufacturing jobs than any other country. Yes, even as they have grown their manufacturing production enormously. The entire world is increasing manufacturing output while decreasing manufacturing employment[...]