Manufacturing Jobs
Posted on September 23, 2006 Comments (4)
The article, Manufacturing Lost 3.4 Million Jobs Since 1998, indicates “The increased output should lead to job recovery.” I doubt it. While it is true there is a correlation between output and jobs by far the most significant trend is more manufacturing output and fewer manufacturing jobs everywhere in the world. Like so many articles talking about manufacturing job losses in the USA this one could leave many readers thinking that the USA needs to gain back jobs lost to other countries (while in fact the USA has lost a lower percentage of manufacturing jobs than most all countries – including China – based on the latest data I have seen).
Focusing on manufacturing output and jobs and their importance to the economy makes sense. However, I think people need to update the model they use to set expectations of manufacturing job levels. And given a world in which no countries seem able to do gain manufacturing jobs, it seems more reasonable to expect a continuation of decreased jobs and increased output until that worldwide trend changes. If you want to focus on manufacturing jobs in the USA I think the realistic goals are decreasing the reduction in jobs (by supporting what is still by far the world’s dominant manufacturing economy).
I don’t see what theory is used to think the USA, or any other country, should expect increases in manufacturing jobs, given the experience of the last 20 years. I actually think it is possible we might see worldwide manufacturing jobs start to increase, but I would expect jobs to increase very slowly compared to manufacturing output, but increase nevertheless. However, I know of no evidence to point to that happening, so I can’t see a good case for expecting such a change given the strong trend in the other direction.
It is probably just my desire to see more good jobs available that leads me to hope that it will happen. The best case for such an outcome, is the increase in consumption of manufactured good in Asia will outpace the increase in productivity and therefore require more workers to meet the increased demand. I just don’t believe the demand in the USA, Europe or elsewhere will be great enough to exceed productivity gains.
Related: Global Manufacturing Data by Country – Manufacturing and the Economy – Lean manufactuirng methods
4 Responses to “Manufacturing Jobs”
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April 21st, 2008 @ 3:23 pm
It is true, for lean (and un-lean) companies alike, productivity is improving (it just improves more at lean companies) which means that fewer people are needed to produce the same amount as we have in the past…
September 29th, 2008 @ 10:45 am
From 1979-2007 the USA annual declines in manufacturing employment averaged 1.2% (only Taiwan .9% and Spain .1% showed average annual increases in manufacturing employment).
December 2nd, 2008 @ 12:18 pm
When looking at the long term data, USA manufacturing output continues to increase. For decades people have been repeating the claim that the manufacturing base is eroding. It has not been true…
November 18th, 2011 @ 2:03 am
“The data is all indexed at 2002 = 100. Interestingly the USA has increased output per hour much more than any other country since 2002. The USA index stands at 146, the next highest is Sweden at 127 then the UK at 120. Italy is the only country tracked that fell since 2002, to 94. Japan (the 3rd largest manufacturer and 2nd largest of the countries include, China isn’t included) only increased to 113. Germany (4th and 3rd) increased to 111…”