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Investing related posts. You many also be interested in investment articles and investment books we like and our dictionary of investment terms
Favorite posts: Saving for Retirement - Improving the 401(k) System - 10 Stocks for 10 Years Update - Annual Report by Warren Buffett - Gladwell (and Drucker) on Pensions - How Not to Convert Equity - 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rates - Financial Education
Amazon is acquiring the unique company – Zappos: we have written about Zappos previously: Paying New Employees to Quit. Jeff Bezos uses the webcast above to talk to the employees of Zappos. Excellent job. The letter from Tony Hsieh, the Zappo’s CEO, to employees is fantastic. This is a CEO that respects employees. These are leaders I would follow and invest in (and in fact I am glad I do own Amazon stock).
We learned that they truly wanted us to continue to build the Zappos brand and continue to build the Zappos culture in our own unique way. I think “unique” was their way of saying “fun and a little weird.” 
Over the past several months, as we got to know each other better, both sides became more and more excited about the possibilities for leveraging each other’s strengths. We realized that we are both very customer-focused companies — we just focus on different ways of making our customers happy.
Amazon focuses on low prices, vast selection and convenience to make their customers happy, while Zappos does it through developing relationships, creating personal emotional connections, and delivering high touch (“WOW”) customer service.
Toyota Posts Loss of $6.9 Billion in Last Quarter
For the year to next March, the maker of the Prius hybrid forecast an operating loss of 850 billion yen, more than double the average forecast in a survey of 20 analysts by Thomson Reuters. It sees an annual net loss of 550 billion yen based on the dollar and euro averaging 95 yen and 125 yen.
The bleak forecasts prompted ratings agency Standard & Poor’s to downgrade Toyota’s long-term debt ratings to AA from AA+, with a negative outlook.
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To return to profit, Toyota must sell more cars or cut costs further, Watanabe said. But he predicted the U.S. market would be around 10 million vehicles industrywide at best this year, down from more than 13 million in 2008.
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Toyota is bleeding overhead costs, with about a third of its global assembly lines working on single shifts. It will slash capital spending by more than a third this year to 830 billion yen as it puts expansion projects on hold, but it said it was not thinking of closing any production lines for good.
In my opinion these negative results are a sign of Toyota’s strength not weakness. The credit crisis and economic downturn has resulted in a poor economic environment. Toyota has managed to sustain the blow and hold firm to their principles and likely will come out of this downturn stronger as a company (mainly re-enforcing the importance of planning for bad economic conditions and not getting too excited about growth potential versus risks of growing too fast) and in a better position compared to their competitors. I continue to be an owner of Toyota stock and happily so.
Related: Idle Workers Busy at Toyota – Financial Market Meltdown (Oct 2008) – “2007 has been a difficult year for Toyota” – New Toyota CEO’s Views (2005) – Jim Press, Toyota N. American President, Moves to Chrysler
Get Rich Slow by Josh Quittner
“At this point, it would be hard for companies to get any cheaper,” Graham said. Since everyone already has an Internet-connected computer, “it’s gotten to the point that you can’t detect the cost of a company when added to a person’s living expenses. A company is no more expensive than a hobby these days.”
I see a great deal of truth to this and it provides interesting opportunities. Including being able to build a business slowly while still working full time. I have written about Y-combinator previously they have helped make this model popular. And the services these companies make seem to me to often be much more refreshing than ideas so watered down they lose much passion (so common from so many companies). Though some large companies provide great web sites.
Related: Some Good IT Business Ideas – Find Joy and Success in Business – Our Policy is to Stick Our Heads in the Sand – Small Business Profit and Cash Flow
Warren Buffett published his letter to shareholders yesterday. As usual, it is of great interest to anyone interested in the economic, investing and management ideas.
Our record matches our rhetoric. Most buyers competing against us, however, follow a different path. For them, acquisitions are “merchandise.” Before the ink dries on their purchase contracts, these operators are contemplating “exit strategies.” We have a decided advantage, therefore, when we encounter sellers who truly care about the future of their businesses.
Some years back our competitors were known as “leveraged-buyout operators.” But LBO became a
bad name. So in Orwellian fashion, the buyout firms decided to change their moniker. What they did not change, though, were the essential ingredients of their previous operations, including their cherished fee structures and love of leverage. Their new label became “private equity,”
Berkshire Hathaway is a very well run company. Warren Buffett is a great investor. He is also a great executive. He hires honest and able people and lets them do their job. He ensures managers retain constancy of purpose by focusing on the long term and not getting overly focused on quarterly results. And have you ever read an annual report that talks of so many employees with such respect (granted it is a rare situation – something similar in an annual report could well seem disingenuous if it were not Warren Buffett writing)?
Related: 2005 Annual Report from Buffett – Warren Buffett’s 2006 Shareholder Letter – Warren Buffett Webcast on the Credit Crisis – Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2008
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MEMS development in less than half the time by Christopher N. Delametter, Eastman Kodak Company
Related: Design of Experiments articles – Using Design of Experiments – Statistics for Experimenters – Why Use Designed Factorial Experiments? – Kodak Debuts Printers With Inexpensive Cartridges
Does it surprise you to learn traders would cover up losses to protect bonuses? It shouldn’t, it happens over and over. Would it surprise you that almost any bonus (or quota) scheme increases the odds that the data will be doctored to meet the goals? It shouldn’t. Intelligent measures to make such doctoring difficult can help reduce the practice. But it is a likely risk of any such goal. As we have quoted Brian Joiner as saying: there are: “3 ways to improve the figures: distort the data, distort the system and improve the system. Improving the system is the most difficult.” So it is no shock that distorting the data is often the tacit people use (especially when the rewards are great or the punishment for missing is severe).
Of course the people that take unethical or illegal action are responsible for their actions. But managers that set up poor systems and then get poor results should not be surprised. You mainly read about the exciting distortion of data – but there is much more such distortion that doesn’t seem interesting enough for the press.
Traders at top investment bank ‘covered up losses to protect their bonuses in £1.4 bn scam’
Shares in the bank, which is based in Zurich, tumbled 7.5 per cent yesterday. Credit Suisse admitted it had discovered intentional “pricing errors” by a small number of traders involved in complex investments linked to the mortgage market.
Related: Problems with Bonuses – Be Careful What You Measure – Measuring and Managing Performance in Organizations – Another Quota Failure Example
As usual, Warren Buffett’s letter to shareholders is packed with wisdom. He is best know for his investing genius but his writing provides great thoughts for managers also: Berkshire Hathaway 2007 Letter to Shareholders:
Related: Buffett’s Letter to Shareholders (from last year) – Buffett’s Shareholder Letter (2006) – Overview of Warren Buffett – Annual Report by Warren Buffett (2005) – Hiring the Right People
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With Microsoft’s offer for Yahoo I am replacing Yahoo with Danaher in the 12 Stocks for 10 Years portfolio. Other stocks in the portfolio include Google up 137% since purchased, PetroChina up 132%, Amazon up 106% and Toyota up 44%. I have considered Danaher since creating the portfolio and now looks like an attractive time to make the change. Other stocks I like now are Google, PetroChina, Toyota and Tesco. The bias toward companies that practice what I discuss in this blog is very intentional – I believe this stuff works and believe companies that manage using the ideas discussed here will prosper.
Curious Cat Management Improvement Blog previous posts on: Danaher – Toyota, Tesco and Google.
Related: Curious Cat Investing Search – Curious Cat Investing Blog – 10 stocks for 10 years
Sybron has adopted principles known as Danaher Business Systems, which he called a “playbook” to make the company run as a more efficient team. It’s centered on “kaizen,” a quality improvement process that grew out of the teaching of W. Edwards Deming. The focus on manufacturing and operations, combined “with our sales and marketing expertise (has) made us a much stronger company,” Tuttle said.
Danaher continues to do a good job improving management practices one purchase at a time. I continue to eye Danaher as a stock to buy but have not bought yet.
Related: Danaher Practicing Lean Thinking – Lean Thinking at Danaher – Tilting at Ludicrous CEO Pay – lean manufacturing directory
I have mentioned I like the way Amazon, and Jeff Bezos, have been managing in several posts. Recently Amazon has added very strong financial results to that portfolio of things they do well. Amazon earnings announcement:
Operating income increased 149% to $116 million in the second quarter, compared with $47 million in second quarter 2006. Net income increased 257% to $78 million in the second quarter, or $0.19 per diluted share, compared with net income of $22 million, or $0.05 per diluted share in second quarter 2006.
Pretty impressive. It seems Amazon might be able to begin delivering strong current financial performance (they have done so at least twice, and maybe longer depending on how you look at it…) and continue to build and innovate for the future. That is when a company really sets itself apart from the crowd. Previously, from the investing perspective, the argument was largely based on the belief that the steps taken today were building for the future (a fine thing, but risky – without the evidence of success actually making real profit it is often easy to make a good case for why the future will be good). In an investment it is more comforting when current earning provide some evidence the profits predicted in the future have some basis in reality.
Since the beginning of April Amazon’s share price has gone from $40 a share to $70. And based on the after hours trades today it is going to be in the $80s tomorrow (though after hours trades can often be misleading – there is some more confidence based on the large volume of hour trades in Amazon, but still…). I must admit this price does seem like it might be getting a bit ahead of itself but Amazon is making an impressive case for strong future performance.
Related: Amazon Innovation – 10 stocks for 10 years (April 2005) – 12 Stocks for 10 Years Update (June 2007) – Very Good Amazon Earnings – Bezos on Lean Thinking – Is Amazon a Bargain?
Often people have trouble understanding Dr. Deming’s disapproval of arbitrary numerical targets. What he was trying to prevent is what many see every day, such as managing to quarterly earnings targets. There are several problems with numerical goals but in here lets focus on one. The change from managing for what is best for the business to managing to hit a target. Google Profit Trails Analyst Estimates; Shares Slide:
Great statement. And if more people could manage that way, one of the problems with numerical goals would be eliminated. But with so many organizations tying huge bonuses to meeting arbitrary numerical targets you will have a great deal of difficulty getting managers to hire 3 extra people this quarter, who will help the business, but will ruin their chance at a bonus. Or even if they just take a hit on their performance appraisal compared to the other managers that meet the headcount target – even if it meant turning away talent the organization could have benefited from greatly – and then the manager that missed their target loses out in the next promotion opportunity.
I am happy to own a tiny portion of Google and glad they are making decisions like this. Now just because I think there is a good case to be made for exceeding the targets that doesn’t mean that hiring more people is necessarily good. It is perfectly possible Google is hiring too many people and making a bad prediction about how these people will benefit Google in the long run. I am just saying I strongly support not tying yourself to short term numerical targets, if you predict a better decision requires taking actions that will cause the target to be missed.
Google increased profit by 28%, from the second quarter last year, to $925 million (and down from $1.0 billion in the first quarter of 2007). Lest you think personnel can’t really cost Google that much can it, just the stock based compensation in the second quarter reduced earning by $242 million in the quarter (an “expense” that wasn’t reported just a few years ago). Google had 13,786 full-time employees as of June 30, 2007 (up 1,548 in the quarter) – so that is over $17,500 per full time employee. If anyone at Google wants to talk I am open to considering an employment offer.
It is good to see more people understand the bad practice of excessive short term focus on quarterly profits. It is also a bit amusing to see the Chamber of Commerce pushing an idea Deming was called unrealistic for pushing.
The right way to handle a surprise:
Roughly a quarter of the companies in the S&P 500 have stopped giving guidance (or never started), including Berkshire Hathaway, Coca-Cola and Google. Check the investor-relations area of a company’s web site to see whether it plays what David Hirschmann of the Chamber of Commerce calls the “fool’s game” of earnings guidance.
Related: Management: Geeks and Deming – Deming’s Seven Deadly Diseases of Western Management – Goodbye Quarterly Targets? – Distort the System
He Pointed Firms To Quality by Kirk Shinkle:
In the introduction to his 1983 book “Out of the Crisis,” Deming called hostile takeovers and leveraged buyouts “a cancer in the American system.” “Fear of takeover, along with emphasis on the quarterly dividend, defeats constancy of purpose,” he wrote. He also derided a focus on short-term profits that comes with traditional benchmarks used by many corporations.
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“Back in 1980 when he talked about working with your suppliers, people would just back up against the wall. That was heresy,” Orsini said. “Now we’re teaching courses in supply chain management, and most people have no idea the roots of it are in Deming’s thinking.” Deming opposed protectionist laws and policies, calling trade between nations “an essential component of peace and prosperity.” Deming’s influence on managing people’s skill was built on a solid foundation of quantifiable fact.
Related: Deming on Management – The purpose of an organization – distorting the system – Management: Geeks and Deming – Curious Cat Deming Connections – Red Bead Experiment – Curious Cat Investment Blog – Willam O’Neil (Investor’s Business Daily founder) – not exactly a Deming based investing approach
I commented on a post on Evolving Excellence that Jim Jubak is a wall street guy who has good ideas. He has posted another good article: Firing workers isn’t fixing problems
Right. Wall street is not incapable of seeing past short term “thinking.” Even if many on wall street can’t seem to understand. I am far from convinced short term thinking is Wall Street’s fault, it seems to me many executives have this problem and blame “Wall Street.” I believe short term thinking is mainly management’s fault.
Short term thinking is part of the management system. Exorbinant executive pay exacerbates the problem. A failure to understand variation exacerbates the problem. (more…)
Short term lean thinking payoffs are nice, but the long term benefits are much more powerful.
Related: Danaher’s Low Profile Lean Excellence – Lean Blog – lean manufacturing articles – 10 Stocks for 10 years update (Danaher was in serious consideration)
In April of 2005 I wrote: 10 stocks for 10 years. At that time I also created a fund through Marketocracy. Thus far the portfolio is up 15.8% annually (versus 15.3% for the S&P 500) – see more below…
I have made minor changes to the fund during the year (less than 4% turnover). As I mentioned in June I would buy Tesco, but Marketocracy does not support it. Google is still doing quite well, up 122% since inception. The second largest gain is for Petro China, up 106% and Toyota is up 67%. Dell is the worst performer down 25% followed by Yahoo down 16%. I am comfortable with the original 10 stocks and don’t have any significant changes I would make to the portfolio now. For the small change I would make now see more…
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Chart of home values from 1890 through 2006 (the chart is a misleading because it crops the lower end at 60 (not 0). The values go from 60-200 (it is an index showing the cost of the standard house in thousands of 2006 $s. House prices have ranged from $66,000-200,000 for the standard house from 1890 to 2006, and never above $130,000 until 2001. Larger view of the graph (via the New York Times) and the data set from Robert Shiller. Graph source: Irrational Exuberance, 2nd Edition, 2006.
Home prices certainly seem like a bubble there doesn’t it? Many news stories now talk about the bursting housing market bubble: The housing collapse heard round the world, Fighting Inflation and Housing Bubbles, Pop Goes the Real Estate Bubble, Bubble Blog, Once bubble bursts, cities feel the pain, Housing bubble has burst, Housing bubble is finally at bursting point…
I wrote about the housing bubble in April of 2005:
I am not convinced that we are seeing a bursting bubble. Certain location are at a risk to experience such declines (most of those areas went up more than 100% in the last 5 years so they still would have large gains over the last few years). The market certainly has moved to the point where a transition to a bursting bubble is much closer than it was a year ago. Even several years ago many proclaimed the bubble was ready to burst, in the face of continuing rapid increases in prices. Today we are essentially at a flat market but the momentum is all toward a decline in prices. So it is certainly possible this post will look foolish in 6 months or a year but I’ll take that chance.
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Manufacturer’s Acquisition Strategy Sets It Apart From The Pack, Investors Business Daily:
The keys are standardization, measurement and innovation — all directed toward the goal of continuous improvement.
“It’s basically a set of tools that allows Danaher to make whatever widget they are manufacturing at a cost less than most of their competitors,” said Morningstar analyst Eric Landry. “Over the past decade they have (also been moving) DBS into the back office and into sales. It produces a culture where you are never satisfied.”
The quotes are from Wall Street Analysts. I think basically they like the ever increasing cash flow and then use the story the company gives for why they are successful. Still they are playing up lean thinking.
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The Risk Pool by Malcolm Gladwell (author of The Tipping Point and Blink):
Pension plans did work well for a short period of time. But recently they (along with the attached retiree health care) are one of the big problems facing large old companies: like GM. Gladwell talks about the dependency ratio for an economy and the dependency ratio of companies. Worsening dependency ratios can cause pension plans to kill companies (if they are not funded when the obligation is incurred) – as the company is forced to pay for more and more retirees with fewer and fewer workers.
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401(k)s are a great retirement investment vehicle (for those in the USA). Since the introduction of 401(k)s they have proved very advantageous to those saving for their retirement. See our previous post on: Saving for Retirement.
However, the experience thusfar shows a weaknesses in the system. Many people don’t even take advantage of a 401(k) to save for their retirement. From a public policy perspective it creates a huge long term problem. The economy will end up with millions of people that didn’t save for retirement and will be a drain on those who did save for retirement and the rest of the economy.
So Congress actually passed a good revision to the law. Employers will now be required to default to having employees save for their retirement in 401(k) plans. The employee still has the option to decline doing so, but now, without such a choice, they will automatically save for retirement. Great news, if like me, you believe many who would have not saved for retirement now will, and that doing so will be a good move for them and for the overall economy.
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