Tag Archives: Statistics

Quality is a Journey to Excellence – Improving the System

Quality is a Journey to Excellence is a 2 day management seminar that Bill Hunter (my father) recorded in 1985 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The embedded clip shows the third section of a the seminar on improving the system. Deming has this pithy way of putting a lot of the problems along those lines and what he says is: “Lets play American industry and we’ll make toast. I’ll burn and you scrape.” These links provide more details on ideas he … Continue reading →

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In Praise of Data-Driven Management (AKA “Why You Should be Skeptical of HiPPO’s”)

Guest post by Justin Hunter, originally published 18 August 2009. Jeff Fry recently linked to a fantastic webcast in Controlled Experiments To Test For Bugs In Our Mental Models. I would highly recommend it to anyone without any reservations. Ron Kohavi, of Microsoft Research does a superb job of using interesting real-world examples to explain the benefits of conducting small experiments with web site content and the advantages of making data-driven decisions. I firmly believe that the power of applied … Continue reading →

Posted in Data, Design of Experiments, IT, Management, Psychology, Quality tools, Software Development, Statistics | Tagged , , , ,

Interview of Bill Hunter: Statistical Variability and Interactions

Interview of Bill Hunter on Statistical Variability and Interactions by Peter Scholtes, 1986: In this interview Bill Hunter describes how results are made up of the impact and interactions of many variables. Many of those variables we don’t know about or account for. What we normally do is try to figure out the most important variables for processes and then experiment with those variables to find the best options given what we are trying to achieve. Often the description of … Continue reading →

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Interview of Bill Hunter, Brian Joiner and Peter Scholtes on Better Management Practices

Interview with Bill Hunter, Brian Joiner and Peter Scholtes (listen to the interview) on a Public Affair, National Public Radio about improving management practices in the USA. The interview is over 30 years old now but the better management ideas are as true today as they were then. Sadly we have not improved management practices based on these ideas very much. There have been improvements in how many organizations are managed but those improvements are so slow that fundamental problems … Continue reading →

Posted in Data, Deming, Management, Process improvement, Public Sector, Statistics, Systems thinking | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Poorly Stratified Data Leads to Mistakes in Analysis

Stratification can help provide insight into the nature of the real world situation. Determining what is a sensible conclusion to draw and what is not is aided by an understanding of statistics and expert knowledge of the situation the data is drawn from. Continue reading →

Posted in Data, Management, Statistics, Systems thinking | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Don’t Expect Short Quotes to Tell the Whole Story

When people try to use a short quote as an accurate encapsulation of a management concept they will often be disappointed. It is obvious that Dr. Deming believed that organizations failed to use data effectively to improve. He proposed that organizations needed to change and use data effectively in order to thrive over the long term. He believed that greatly increasing the use of data in decision making would be useful. He also believed there were specific problems with how … Continue reading →

Posted in Data, Management, quote, Statistics, Systems thinking | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments

All Data is Wrong, Some is Useful

From my first blog post on this blog – Dangers of Forgetting the Proxy Nature of Data we often fail to explore whether changes in the numbers (which we call results) are representative of the “true results” of the system or if the data is misleading. Data is meant to provide us insight into a more complex reality. We need to understand the limitations when we look at “results” and understand data isn’t really the results but a representation we … Continue reading →

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George Box Webcast on Statistical Design in Quality Improvement

George Box lecture on Statistical Design in Quality Improvement at the Second International Tampere Conference in Statistics, University of Tampere, Finland (1987). Early on he shows a graph showing the problems with American cars steady over a 10 years period. Then he overlays the results for Japanese cars which show a steady and significant decline of the same period. Those who didn’t get to see presentations before power point also get a chance to see old school, hand drawn, overhead … Continue reading →

Posted in Creativity, Data, Innovation, Management, Process improvement, Psychology, Quality tools, Science, Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

George Box Articles Available for a Short Time

A collection of George Box articles have been selected for a virtual George Box issue by David M. Steinberg and made available online. George E. P. Box died in March 2013. He was a remarkably creative scientist and his celebrated professional career in statistics was always at the interface of science and statistics. George Box, J. Stuart Hunter and Cuthbert Daniel were instrumental in launching Technometrics in 1959, with Stu Hunter as the initial editor. Many of his articles were … Continue reading →

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Analysis Must be Implemented by People to Provide Value

Guest Post by Bill Scherkenbach Every time I look at this picture, I think of Dr. Deming’s words to drive out fear and take joy in your work. We were talking in my home office when Sylvester saw a good lap and took it. Our conversation immediately shifted when both Dr. Deming and Sylvester started purring. The greatest statistical analysis is nothing if it can’t be implemented by people. But people learn in different ways. Some like good stories, others … Continue reading →

Posted in Deming, Psychology | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Stu Hunter Discussing Bill Hunter, Statistics for Experimenters and EVOP

In this clip, Stu Hunter talks about Bill Hunter (my father, and no relation to Stu Hunter), Statistics for Experimenters and EVolutionary OPerations (EVOP). Stu mentions Bill Hunter’s work with the City of Madison, which started with the First Street Garage (Out of the Crisis included a short write up on this effort by Dad, which, I believe, was the first application of Deming’s ideas in the public sector). There was also a great deal of work done with the … Continue reading →

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Design of Experiments: The Process of Discovery is Iterative

This video is another excerpt on the design of experiments videos by George Box, see previous posts: Introduction to Fractional Factorial Designed Experiments and The Art of Discovery. This video looks at learning about experimental design using paper helicopters (the paper linked there may be of interest to you also). [the video is no longer available online] In this example a screening experiment was done first to find those factors that have the largest impact on results. Once the most … Continue reading →

Posted in Design of Experiments, Management, Process improvement, Quality tools, Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Stated Versus Revealed Preference

My father provided me a good example of the flawed thinking of relying on stated preference when I was growing up. Stated preference is, as you might deduce, the preferences voiced by customers when you ask. This is certainly useful but people’s stated preference often do not match there actions. And for a business, actions that lead to customers are more important than claims potential customers make about what will make them customers. His example was that if you ask … Continue reading →

Posted in Customer focus, Popular, Psychology | Tagged , , , , , , , | 8 Comments

The Art of Discovery

Quality and The Art of Discovery by Professor George Box (1990): Quotes by George Box in the video: “I think of statistical methods as the use of science to make sense of numbers” “The scientific method is how we increase the rate at which we find things out.” “I think the quality revolution is nothing more, or less, than the dramatic expansion of the of scientific problem solving using informed observation and directed experimentation to find out more about the … Continue reading →

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George Box

I would most likely not exist if it were not for George Box. My father took a course from George while my father was a student at Princeton. George agreed to start the Statistics Department at the University of Wisconsin – Madison, and my father followed him to Madison, to be the first PhD student. Dad graduated, and the next year was a professor there, where he and George remained for the rest of their careers. George died today, he … Continue reading →

Posted in Data, Deming, Design of Experiments, Management, Manufacturing, Process improvement, Quality tools, quote, Respect, Six sigma, Statistics, Systems thinking, UK | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 15 Comments

Podcast Discussion on Management Matters

I continue to record podcasts as I promote my new book – Management Matters: Building Enterprise Capability. This the second part, of 2, of my podcast with Joe Dager, Business 901: Management Matters to a Curious Cat. The first part featured a discussion of 2 new deadly diseases facing companies. Listen to this podcast. Links to more information on some of the topics I mention in the podcast: Appreciation for a System Using the PDSA improvement cycle Dangers of Targets … Continue reading →

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