Tag Archives: variation

Interview of Bill Hunter: Statistical Variability and Interactions

Posted on July 25, 2022 by John Hunter

Interview of Bill Hunter on Statistical Variability and Interactions by Peter Scholtes, 1986: In this interview Bill Hunter describes how results are made up of the impact and interactions of many variables. Many of those variables we don’t know about or account for. What we normally do is try to figure out the most important variables for processes and then experiment with those variables to find the best options given what we are trying to achieve. Often the description of … Continue reading →

Posted in Data, Management, Statistics, webcast | Tagged Bill Hunter, experiments, interview, learning, Peter Scholtes, Statistics, variation, webcast

Don’t Expect Short Quotes to Tell the Whole Story

Posted on July 25, 2017 by John Hunter

When people try to use a short quote as an accurate encapsulation of a management concept they will often be disappointed. It is obvious that Dr. Deming believed that organizations failed to use data effectively to improve. He proposed that organizations needed to change and use data effectively in order to thrive over the long term. He believed that greatly increasing the use of data in decision making would be useful. He also believed there were specific problems with how … Continue reading →

Posted in Data, Management, quote, Statistics, Systems thinking | Tagged Data, Deming, quote, Statistics, Systems thinking, variation | 4 Comments

Special Cause Signal Isn’t Proof A Special Cause Exists

Posted on October 3, 2012 by John Hunter

One of my pet peeves is when people say that a point outside the control limits is a special cause. It is not. It is an indication that it likely a special cause exists, and that special cause thinking is the correct strategy to use to seek improvement. But that doesn’t mean there definitely was a special cause – it could be a false signal. This post relies on an understand of control charts and common and special causes (review … Continue reading →

Posted in Data, Deming, Management, Manufacturing, Process improvement, Quality tools, quote, Six sigma, Statistics, Systems thinking | Tagged control chart, curiouscat, Data, Deming, in-process measures, Process improvement, Quality tools, Six sigma, Systems thinking, variation

Introductory Videos on Using Design of Experiments to Improve Results

Posted on June 18, 2012 by John Hunter

The video shows Stu Hunter discussing design of experiments in 1966. It might be a bit slow going at first but the full set of videos really does give you a quick overview of the many important aspects of design of experiments including factorial designed experiments, fractional factorial design, blocking and response surface design. It really is quite good, if you find the start too slow for you skip down to the second video and watch it. My guess is, … Continue reading →

Posted in Data, Design of Experiments, Science, Six sigma, Statistics | Tagged Data, Design of Experiments, engineering, experiments, Process improvement, Science, Six sigma, Statistics, variation, webcast | 6 Comments

Agile Story Point Estimation

Posted on February 8, 2012 by John Hunter

In agile software development tasks are documented as user stories. Then the level of effort for those stores can be estimated by assigning each story points. The velocity that can be produced in a period (called a sprint, for us 2 weeks) can be estimated. Thus you can predict what can be delivered in the next sprint (which can help business managers make priority decisions). I have found estimation to be worthwhile. In doing so, we accept there is a … Continue reading →

Posted in Data, IT, Process improvement, Quality tools, quote, Software Development | Tagged agile management, project management, Quality tools, quote, Software Development, variation

Dr. Deming in 1980 on Product Quality in Japan and the USA

Posted on December 5, 2011 by John Hunter

I posted an interesting document to the Curious Cat Management Library: it includes Dr. Deming’s comments as part of a discussion organized by the Government Accounting Office in 1980 on Quality in Japan and the United States. The document provides some interesting thoughts from Dr. Deming and others; Dr. Deming’s statements start on page 52 of the document. For those really interested in management improvement ideas it is a great read. I imagine most managers wouldn’t enjoy it though (it … Continue reading →

Posted in Deming, Management, Psychology, Public Sector, Quality tools, quote, Respect, Statistics, Systems thinking | Tagged continual improvement, curiouscat, Deming, government, Japan, Lean thinking, management, management history, managing people, Process improvement, Psychology, Public Sector, quality, Quality tools, quote, respect for people, SPC, Statistics, Systems thinking, variation

Assigning Story Points to Bug Fixes

Posted on January 27, 2011 by John Hunter

Agile software development has teams estimate the effort to deliver requests from the product owner. The estimates are done in points (in order to abstract away from hours – as estimates have plenty of variation in how long they will really take). Then the teams capacity (velocity) is determined based on looking at how many points they complete in a “sprint” (a set length, often 2 weeks). Then the product owner can prioritize all of the requests with an understanding … Continue reading →

Posted in IT, Quality tools, Software Development, Systems thinking | Tagged agile management, kanban, programming, project management, Quality tools, Software Development, variation | 2 Comments

How to Manage What You Can’t Measure

Posted on August 4, 2010 by John Hunter

In Out of the Crisis, page 121, Dr. Deming wrote: the most important figures that one needs for management are unknown or unknowable (Lloyd S. Nelson, director of statistical methods for the Nashua corporation), but successful management must nevertheless take account of them. So what do you do then? I am a strong advocate of Deming’s ideas on management. I see understanding system thinking, psychology, the theory of knowledge and variation as the tools to use when you can’t get … Continue reading →

Posted in Deming, Management, Popular, quote, Systems thinking | Tagged curiouscat, Data, Deming, management, managing people, Popular, quote, Statistics, Systems thinking, variation | 12 Comments

Nice Non-technical Control Chart Webcast

Posted on April 28, 2010 by John Hunter

This very brief introduction to control charts by PQ Systems provides a very watchable non-technical overview. Getting people to understand variation is important, and not easy. This video is one more quick reminder for those still trying to incorporate an understanding of variation into their view of the world. The idea is simple. But actually thinking with an understanding of variation people find difficult, it seems to me. It is very easy to continue to revert to special cause thinking … Continue reading →

Posted in Deming, Management, Process improvement, Quality tools, Systems thinking, webcast | Tagged control chart, Deming, problem solving, Process improvement, Systems thinking, variation, webcast | 1 Comment

Red Bead Experiment Webcast

Posted on April 22, 2009 by John Hunter

Dr. Deming used the red bead experiment to present a view into management practices and his management philosophy. The experiment provides insight into all four aspects of Dr. Deming’s management system: understanding variation, understanding psychology, systems thinking and the theory of knowledge. Red Bead Experiment by Steve Prevette Various techniques are used to ensure a quality (no red bead) product. There are quality control inspectors, feedback to the workers, merit pay for superior performance, performance appraisals, procedure compliance, posters and … Continue reading →

Posted in Data, Deming, Education, Management, Performance Appraisal, Psychology, quote, Respect, webcast | Tagged control chart, Data, Deming, Fun, management, management experts, Performance Appraisal, Psychology, Quality tools, training, variation, webcast | 3 Comments

How to Create a Control Chart for Seasonal or Trending Data

Posted on March 25, 2009 by John Hunter

Lynda Finn, President of Statistical Insight, has written an article on how to create a control chart for seasonal or trending data (where there is an underlying structural variation in the data). Essentially you need to account for the structural variation to create the control limits for the control chart. She also provides a Minitab project file. Both are available for download from the Curious Cat Management Improvement Library. Related: Control Charts in Health Care – Common Cause Variation – … Continue reading →

Posted in Data, Deming, Management, Process improvement, Quality tools, Science, Statistics | Tagged Data, Deming, Process improvement, Quality tools, SPC, Statistics, variation | 3 Comments

6 Leadership Competencies

Posted on November 13, 2008 by John Hunter

At the recent Annual W. Edwards Deming Institute Annual conference (this year held in Madison, Wisconsin) Peter Scholtes gave an excellent speech on the 6 Leadership Competencies from his book: The Leader’s Handbook. Those competencies are: The ability to think in terms of systems, and knowing how to lead systems. The ability to understand the variability of work in planning an problem solving Understanding how we learn, develop and improve. Leading true learning and improvement. Understanding people and why they … Continue reading →

Posted in Deming, Management, Psychology, Systems thinking | Tagged Deming, John Hunter, Madison, Peter Scholtes, quote, tips, variation | 8 Comments

Epidemic of Diagnoses

Posted on January 3, 2007 by John Hunter

What’s Making Us Sick Is an Epidemic of Diagnoses by Dr. Welch, Dr. Schwartz and Dr. Woloshin: For most Americans, the biggest health threat is not avian flu, West Nile or mad cow disease. It’s our health-care system. True, and probably the biggest economic threat too. See: Deming’s Seven Deadly Diseases and Health Insurance Premiums Soar Again. But it also leads to more diagnoses, a trend that has become an epidemic. This epidemic is a threat to your health. It … Continue reading →

Posted in Deming, Health care, Management, Process improvement, Psychology, Quality tools | Tagged control chart, Deming, process thinking, Quality tools, tampering, variation | 4 Comments

Common Cause Variation

Posted on November 30, 2006 by John Hunter

Every system has variation. Common cause variation is the variation due to the current system. Dr. Deming increased his estimate of variation due to the system (common cause variation) to 97% (earlier in his life he cited figures around 80%). Special cause variation is that due to some special (not part of the system) cause. The control chart (in addition to other things) helps managers to avoid tampering (taking action on common cause variation as though it were a special … Continue reading →

Posted in Data, Deming, Management, Quality tools, Theory of Constraints | Tagged common cause, Data, Deming, management concepts, problem solving, Process improvement, variation | 2 Comments

The Customer Knows Best?

Posted on May 16, 2006 by John Hunter

The Customer Knows Best? Better Think Again by Anthony W. Ulwick It’s important to listen to customers – but not follow their words without skepticism. Ask them to design your next product and you’re likely to miss the mark, suggests this Harvard Business Review excerpt. Excellent point. Some management ideas are pretty easy and straight forward. But many management practices require knowledge and judgment to apply them successfully. Easy solutions may be desired, but, often you must choose between easy … Continue reading →

Posted in Customer focus, Deming, Innovation, Management, Management Articles | Tagged critical thinking, Customer focus, Data, evidence based management, organization as a system, variation

Six Sigma and Process Drift

Posted on May 8, 2006 by John Hunter

Quality Quandaries: Six Sigma, Process Drift, Capability Indices, and Feedback Adjustment by George Box and Alberto Luceno. This article is for the more statistically inclined. The Six Sigma specification makes an allowance of 1.5 standard deviations for process drift. Simple ways in which a major part of such drift can be removed are given. These employ feedback adjustment methods specifically designed for SPC applications. Feedback adjustment can be dangerous: tampering. In fact, I would say attempting it is likely to … Continue reading →

Posted in Management Articles, Manufacturing, Process improvement, Quality tools, Six sigma, Statistics | Tagged George Box, Six sigma, SPC, Statistics, variation