Predicting Improves Learning

The Power of Prediction by Jared Spool:

By asking these questions up front, we give the team members something to focus on. When a participant gets stuck somewhere they predicted, it stands out. They can take pleasure in knowing they identified a potential landmine.

In our experience, it stands out even more when the participant gets stuck someplace nobody expected. These opportunities allow us a chance to learn something new about how users approach our designs.

Great idea. As I discussed in, Management is Prediction:

The critical issue is making the prediction, then comparing the results to that prediction and then figuring out how your original understanding can be improved based on the new data.

Personally I have found the act of actually making predictions and examining the results incredibly helpful in improving the speed and depth of my learning. You can also learn tendencies for missed predictions (predicting greater improvement, prediction faster adoption of new idea, underestimate additional costs required by new procedures…) and then adjust to make better predictions over time.

Related: Write it DownMetrics and Software DevelopmentTheory of KnowledgeGoogle: Experiment Quickly and Often

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Be Careful What You Measure

Be Careful What You Measure by Mike Wroblewski:

Although this recalculation of productivity had a positive affect, it is not what I would consider a triumph. Ongoing efforts are still required to truly increase productivity, so it’s back to gemba. However, I am modifying the lesson to “Be careful what and how you measure, measurements drive action and behavior”

Excellent points. Behavior can be changed by what is measured. The problem with arbitrary numerical targets (to take one measurement related example) is not that attempts to achieve those targets won’t have an affect. They very well may have an affect. However they may not lead to the desired result. When focused on improving a number (which can happen when focused on measures – especially as the focus on those measures is tied to bonuses, favorable treatment…) the focus is not necessarily on on improving the system. Often distorting the system is the result.

Measures need to be used with a conscience effort to remember the data is merely a proxy to quantify the results (not the end themselves). Taking care in choosing the measures is one necessary step to assure the best improvement results. One strategy is to include some measures that are outcome measures. Often those measures are difficult to pin to specific process improvements tightly so you will also want to include specific process measures. The outcome measures help make sure you maintain a focus on the important system level results. Process measures will help you test and improve processes (as well as monitor and react, when necessary to ongoing processes).

Often improving the process measures can be mistaken for the aim. Care needs to be taken to underscore the role of process measures (process management). Also measures should be re-examined periodically to determine if they are still the correct measures. Systems with people are heavily influenced by what is measured. People will often react to what is measured and make adjustments to how the work is done to make the numbers better. The danger is that those attempts to make the measures look better can actually harm the overall system (when poor measures are used).

Related: Targets Distorting the SystemUnderstanding DataOperational Definitions and Data CollectionDangers of Forgetting the Proxy Nature of Data

Posted in Data, Deming, Management, Process improvement, Psychology | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

ASQ Deming Medal to Peter Scholtes

I am happy that the ASQ Deming Medal was presented to Peter R. Scholtes:

for his efforts to inspire others to transform organizations by helping managers understand how successful leadership of people requires an understanding of the interdependencies among knowledge about variation, psychology, appreciation for a system, and the theory of knowledge. The Deming Medal is presented to those who, like Dr. Deming, have successfully combined the application of statistical thinking and management so that each supports and enhances the other, thus leading to quality in products and services.

I have known Peter since he worked with my father applying Deming’s ideas at the City of Madison. And since then I have had the pleasure to enjoy his company over the years in many arenas including at many Hunter Conferences, the Office of Secretary of Defense Quality Management Office, Deming Institute meetings and managing his web site.

His Leader’s Handbook is a great, practical and easy to read management book. I recommend it highly. The Team Handbook is also excellent for working with teams.

Related: ASQ 2007 AwardsIncentive Programs are IneffectiveASQ Deming Medalistsrecommended management improvement books

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Out of the Crisis

Entrepreneur.com has named their 9 best classic business books of the past 30 years including Out of the Crisis by W. Edwards Deming:

Deming’s teachings challenged American business practice at almost every point. Among his most revolutionary ideas were the notions that poor management–not slacker workers–was responsible for most quality problems, and the way to boost quality was to carefully measure defects and the effects of changing processes.

The article includes a section on what to ignore from each book, including for Out of the Crisis – “he was strenuously opposed to incentive pay plans of all types.” Incentive pay plays havoc with teamwork, systems improvement (encouraging sub-optimization), long term thinking, sales volumes (commissions increase variation in sales creating problems for production), shedding light on problems… Ignoring that is not a good idea. Other books they mention include: Innovation and Entrepreneurship by Peter Drucker and The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People by Stephen Covey.

Related: Deming’s ideas on ManagementCurious Cat Management BooksDrum-buffer-rope

via: MIT Press Log

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Learn From Success and Failure

Toyota’s Win That Wasn’t, an interview with, Matthew E. May, author of The Elegant Solution: Toyota’s Formula for Mastering Innovation:

Toyota had a goal of 15% of the U.S. market by 2010. They’ve exceeded that number three years earlier than anticipated. The assumptions didn’t include the Detroit implosion. I know that hansei–the Japanese word for reflection–is being conducted to better understand what happened. At Toyota, exceeding an expectation often receives the same treatment as missing an objective. There’s a need to understand why a gap occurred between what was supposed to happen and what actually happened. So the internal advantage is deeper learning and newly set goals, goals you can be certain will stretch the organization even more.

This illustrates an important point in how the PDSA improvement cycle should be used: results are studied to increase knowledge. If results exceed expectations that should not be a reason to avoid learning. If you only study what results tell you when results are unsatisfactory you can fall into the trap that “you only learn from failure.” I guess many people only learn from failure, since that phrase is so popular, but that method leaves plenty of room for others to learn faster than you thus gaining an advantage (a more effective method of learning). Don’t wait to fail to learn.

Related: Toyota Targets 50% Reduction in Maintenance Waste

Posted in Management, Toyota Production System (TPS) | 1 Comment

Information Technology and Management

Dog Eat Dog [the broken link was removed, sadly even MIT can’t manage a website properly and they have broken the link] by Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson

The CVS experience is a microcosm of a pervasive trend toward using IT to replicate not only digital goods and services but also business processes. This trend encompasses core activities such as customer service and order management, as well as support activities such as accounting and human resources. Once a company embeds its processes in IT, the processes are executed the same way not only across locations, but also over time. This means, for example, that a company can ensure that no large customer order will be accepted until a specific credit check is performed.

While creating an innovative business process is less visible than developing a new product or investing in factories, our research shows it is actually more important to a company’s success. Intangible process capital is changing the way companies operate and the capabilities they possess. As a result, it also is changing the way they compete.

This is very true. But while on this topic, I see people adopting technology as the end rather than to facilitate. IT solutions should support the organization and help the organization improve performance. The technology should not tie the organizations hands (as it can so easily do when implemented without an understanding of systems thinking, variation, process improvement, sub-optimization, psychology…). I believe in the value of in-house IT resources to create IT solutions that support the organization (rather than buying off the shelf solutions that end up making the organization conform to the software).

There are trade-offs that must be made (weighing the total costs of off the shelf solutions, customizable solutions and in house developed applications), but what I see is too much waste created through poor processes implemented in order to conform to software. Instead I think investing in some IT staff to help create IT solutions that aid the overall process improvement efforts would be wise. Often the best options are open source solutions that not only are cheap but normally much easier to customize and are easier to integrate with open architectures. And then have enough IT staff to do customization – I feel many organizations focus inordinately on shrinking the cost of IT staff. Instead they should focus on optimizing the overall system, even if that increase the costs of IT staff.

Granted I am biased having morphed into an IT person from my previous life as someone mainly focused on management improvement in general (but I did so specifically because of the great opportunity to improve performance through the proper adoption of information technology).

Related: Toyota IT OverviewAgile Software DevelopmentChange Your NameUsing Quality to Develop an Internet Resource

Posted in IT, Management | Tagged , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Find Good Management Improvement Jobs

Peter Abilla (shmula blog) is hiring a Manager for Process Improvement [the broken link was removed] to work with him at eBay. It is a great opportunity, in my opinion.

Here are some highlights of what he is looking for:

  • Experience implementing Lean and Six Sigma in transactional environments (non-manufacturing).
  • Experience with Value-stream Mapping (current- and future-state), Lean Consumption and Lean Provisioning
  • Experience with Lean beyond just book knowledge — I’m looking for hands-on implementation of Lean.
  • You can explain why variation sucks, with examples — both qualitative and quantitative. How does the DMAIC framework approach variation?
  • You can explain the difference between poke-yoke and mistake-proofing (trick question) and give examples from everyday life of poke-yoke.
  • You can explain and have an intelligent conversation about the above items with people who don’t have backgrounds in Engineering, Lean, or Six Sigma and have the ability to make the above-items relevant and in-context.
  • See the Curious Cat Management Improvement job board for more lean manufacturing, six sigma, quality engineering… jobs.

Posted in IT, Lean thinking, Process improvement, Six sigma | Tagged | Comments Off on Find Good Management Improvement Jobs

Toyota, Lean, Consultants…

Toyota’s success pleases proponents of ‘lean’

The publicity about Toyota becoming No. 1 will create another burst of energy to lean, even though a survey by management consulting firm Bain shows that just 19% of companies that have tried it are happy with the results, says Mark Gottfredson, Bain’s head of performance improvement.

More evidence that lean works will result in interest in lean – that seems true. And then those that have an interest will be disappointed in their efforts to do what Toyota does. Yes, half hearted attempts to institute some instant pudding management improvement will fail. And many companies will make those half hearted attempts. It is sad but true. Serious attempts will also be frustrating at times and can also fail but most organizations won’t even commit to attempting serious change. Most will just look for some items from current fads to dress up how they have always managed.

That management consultants will also jump from fad to fad, without conviction, is not news. Deming called them “hacks” in the 1980’s. Bob Sutton’s excellent article calls 90% of management advice crap. Care must be taken to manage effectively. It is very easy to implement management ideas poorly. So I am not surprised when good management concepts are implemented poorly.

Related: Management ImprovementManagement Improvement LeadersDeming and Six SigmaDeming and ToyotaCan Six Sigma Fix Bad Management
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Fixing Health Care – Andy Grove

Intel’s Andy Grove Pitches a Plan for Fixing Health Care

Call it fear of mortality, opportunism or altruism — Grove sees a major breakdown in a system that leaves nearly 50 million Americans uninsured and emergency rooms closing down in droves. There’s also a business case. Health care is a $200 trillion-a-year industry — as Grove notes, 20 times larger than the chip business — that’s only getting bigger as baby boomers enter their autumnal years.

Exactly right, the system is broken. The huge costs drag down the entire economy and it needs to be fixed.

Related: USA Healthcare Costs Now 16% of GDPPBS Documentary on Improving HospitalsChange Health CareGoing Lean in Health CareManagement Improvement in Healthcare

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Management Improvement Carnival #10

Please submit your favorite management posts to the carnival.

  • Just Hide It by Mike Wroblewski – “It is also a clear indicator that we have a long way to go on our lean journey. By hiding our problems, we create muda and more importantly we ignore the real problems.”
  • Deming’s 14 Points and Home Building by Peter Abilla – “Magleby is known as the ‘home builder for billionaires.’ I find it refreshing and impressive that he would credit Deming for the quality philosophy that he has instilled in his company.”
  • The War for Talent Is Back by Bob Sutton – “1 Superstars are overrated… 2 Great systems are more important than great people.”
  • How to Use a Kaizen Newspaper by Jon Miller – “A full kaizen newspaper is a good thing. The fact that this is a concern might say something about the quality of the action items rather than the quantity”
  • Deming Redux by Susan M. Heathfield – “Rather than each department doing the budgeting process on their own, this approach – which one manager called the hardest thing he had ever done – promotes one company, one team, and exhibits whole systems thinking.”
  • Continue reading

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