Tag Archives: prediction

Richard Feynman Explains the PDSA Cycle

Posted on May 17, 2012 by John Hunter

Ok, really Richard Feynman Explains the scientific method. But his thoughts make the similarity between the PDSA cycle and the scientific method obvious. 1) Plan, hypothesis. You make a guess about a theory (in using the PDSA cycle this step is often missed, while in the scientific method this is of the highest priority). You make a prediction based on that theory. 2) Do the experiment 3) Study the results If the results disprove the theory you were wrong. If … Continue reading →

Posted in Process improvement, Quality tools, Science | Tagged , , , , , , | 3 Comments

All Models Are Wrong But Some Are Useful

Posted on March 4, 2007 by John Hunter

“All Models Are Wrong But Some Are Useful” -George Box A great quote. Here is the source: George E.P. Box, Robustness in the strategy of scientific model building, page 202 of Robustness in Statistics, R.L. Launer and G.N. Wilkinson, Editors. 1979. See more quotes by George Box. Related: Dangers of Forgetting the Proxy Nature of Data – articles by George Box – Quotes by Dr. W. Edwards Deming

Posted in Fun, quote | Tagged , , , , , | 6 Comments

Management is Prediction

Posted on July 14, 2005 by John Hunter

re: post on prediction [link broken, so removed] on the Deming Electronic Network, Petter Ogland wrote: …that intelligence more or less boils down to updating a predictive model of the world. As far as I can see, this is the C.I. Lewis epistemology that Shewhart and Deming based their philosophy upon. …but is there any kind of operational definition for ‘prediction’ that would explain what Deming means when he uses this word in various contexts? I think your first point … Continue reading →

Posted in Deming, Management, Process improvement, Quality tools, quote, Systems thinking | Tagged , , , | 10 Comments

Theory of Knowledge

Posted on January 29, 2005 by John Hunter

Deming’s Management System, as expressed in his book: The New Economics has four interdependent parts: Appreciation for a System (systems thinking) Knowledge about Variation (see: variation definition) Theory of Knowledge Psychology (the human element of management systems) Quotes on the Theory of Knowledge portion from The New Economics by W. Edwards Deming. “Management is Prediction. The theory of knowledge that management in any form is prediction” (Page 101) “Knowledge is built upon theory… Rational prediction requires theory and build knowledge … Continue reading →

Posted in Deming, Management | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment