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Posts about design of experiments (DoE) - six sigma, (factorial designs, multivariate experiments) as used by statisticians since RA Fisher and now with six sigma.
We recommend Statistics for Experimenters. Articles on DoE: Teaching Engineers Experimental Design With a Paper Helicopter, Development of the Theory of Experimental Design by Sir R.A Fisher


Box on Quality

Posted on October 11, 2005  Comments (2)

Bill Hunter and George Box

Dr. George Box is not as well known in the general management community as his ideas merit (in my biased opinion – photo of Bill Hunter and George Box). He is well know in the statistics field as one of the leading statistical minds. Box on Quality is an excellent book that gathers his essays from his 65th to 80th year. The book has just been issued in paperback (which helps as the hardback was pricey).

While some of the essays are aimed at a reader with an advanced understanding of statistics, many of the articles are aimed at any manager attempting to apply Quality Management principles (SPC, Deming, process improvement, six sigma, etc.). An except from the book provides a table of contents and an introduction.

Some of the articles from the book are available online. I encourage you to take a look at several of the articles and then go ahead and add this book to your prized management resources, if you find them worthwhile.

Design of Experiments in Advertising

Posted on August 9, 2005  Comments (1)

How Two Guys From the Gold Country Are Changing Advertising Forever by Robert X. Cringely

James Kowalick and Mario Fantoni, two guys who say they can show you how to use science to design ads that cost less while being 10 or more times as effective as doing it the old way.

Their secret is the Taguchi Method, which is a technique for designing experiments that converge on an ideal product solution.
…
“I taught over 300 courses for industry where we designed cars and electronic devices, but it wasn’t until one day I took over my wife’s kitchen and used Taguchi to perfect my recipe for vanilla wafer cookies that I realized how broadly it could be applied,” Kowalick recalls. “It took 16 batches, but by the end of the afternoon I had those wafers dialed in.”

It is great to see the application of Designed Experiments increasing. I am reminded of an article by my father, William G. Hunter, from 1975: 101 Ways to Design an Experiment, or Some Ideas About Teaching Design of Experiments. Examples of the topics of the designed experiments his students performed:
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Design of Experiments Articles

Posted on July 25, 2005  Comments (0)

We have added several Design of Experiments articles to the Curious Cat Management Improvement Library recently, including:

  • DOE It Yourself by Mark J. Anderson, A list of Design of Experiments excercizes that can be done in a classroom setting or as home by students with short explanations and links to documents online wtih more details.

Marketers Are Embracing Statistical Design of Experiments

Posted on May 27, 2005  Comments (2)

Marketers Are Embracing Statistical Design of Experiments (site broke link so I removed it) by Richard Burnham.

Crayola® conducts an e-mail marketing DOE to attract parents and teachers to their new Internet site. The company discovers a combination of factors that makes their new e-mail pitch three-and-a-half times more effective than the control. (Harvard Business Review, October 2001, “Boost Your Marketing ROI with Experimental Design,” Almquist, Wyner.)
…
Marketers can’t always be certain what triggers buyers to respond. In the past, we were always admonished to test-test-test, but only one factor at a time – relying on our gut feelings and uncertain hopes. With DOE, marketers have replaced voodoo with the science of statistics.

For more on Design of Experiments see:

Open Source Management Terms

Posted on May 23, 2005  Comments (4)

Statistical Method Helps Boost Bottom Lines, Batting Averages by Jon Van, Chicago Tribune:

Using statistical techniques embraced by quality guru W. Edwards Deming, Holland has worked for a generation guiding enterprises large and small to boost efficiency.
…
Yet getting management support for an MVT project is vital, Holland said, because experience shows that only 25 percent of ideas intended to improve a process will have a positive effect. The others will either have no effect or will hurt. Managers hate to see experimental results shoot down ideas they were certain would help, he said.

The article also mentions:

While Holland claims MVT as his own, others say it is really just a variation of strategies widely used in business.

“Multifactor experiments have been around for a long time,” said Ajit Tamhane, Northwestern University professor of statistics and industrial engineering and management sciences.
…
David Coit, a Rutgers University professor of industrial systems engineering, said that Holland’s MVT is very much like a quality-enhancing scheme called design of experiments.

So often we seem to focus on proprietary solutions. Instead it seems to me, most often what is needed is to do a good job of applying the ideas that have been known for decades. Deming ideas, design of experiments, lean thinking, experimentation, etc. are not secrets. There is a long history of how to apply these ideas to improve organizational performance.

QualPro obviously does well marketing itself (see press clippings from their web site) selling the concept of proprietary solutions to press organizations. Raising the question of whether the proprietary solutions really offers unique ideas, as the The Tribune article did was uncommon in my experience.

I like those encouraging the adoption of statistical tools to improvement management but I find the practice of trademarking terms like Six Sigma and MVT a bad way to encourage innovation in the practice of management. While it is nice to see Six Sigma efforts and others use statistical tools (such as design of experiments) I would encourage people to stay with “open source” management terms and remain part of a community looking to improve the practice of management.

Update: Also see – Management Advice Failures

Statistics for Experimenters – Second Edition

Posted on March 8, 2005  Comments (2)

Buy Statistics for Experimenters

The classic Statistics for Experimenters has been updated by George Box and Stu Hunter, two of the three original authors. Bill Hunter, who was my father, and the other author, died in 1986. Order online: Statistics for Experimenters: Design, Innovation, and Discovery , 2nd Edition by George E. P. Box, J. Stuart Hunter, William G. Hunter.
I happen to agree with those who call this book a classic, however, I am obviously biased.

Google Scholar citations for the first edition of Statistics for Experimenters.
Citations in Cite Seer to the first edition.

The first edition includes the text of Experiment by Cole Porter. In 1978 finding a recording of this song was next to impossible. Now Experiment can be heard on the De-Lovely soundtrack.

Text from the publisher on the 2nd Edition:
Rewritten and updated, this new edition of Statistics for Experimenters adopts the same approaches as the landmark First Edition by teaching with examples, readily understood graphics, and the appropriate use of computers. Catalyzing innovation, problem solving, and discovery, the Second Edition provides experimenters with the scientific and statistical tools needed to maximize the knowledge gained from research data, illustrating how these tools may best be utilized during all stages of the investigative process. The authors’ practical approach starts with a problem that needs to be solved and then examines the appropriate statistical methods of design and analysis.
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Management Improvement History

Posted on September 23, 2004  Comments (4)

Originally posted to the Deming Electronic Network, 22 Sep 1999, in reponse to this message

I would like to say that I think it is good that we have disagreements on the DEN. I think it is a strength of the DEN, not a weakness. However, I think we sometimes get to personal with no real purpose. One example of this, for me, is: “Well, I guess we knew different Demings. Mine was a teacher named Dr. W. Edwards Deming.” I doubt this statement is meant to be taken literally, and if it is not I do not see what it adds to the discussion. I point this out not because I think this is some bad act that should be punished but that I think we need to continue to develop a sense of how we wish to express our disagreements and I think that we should try to do so more constructively.

For the past 60 years we’ve been looking for the magic bullet that will improve the quality of our products, services and lives. In the 1940s, we applied statistics through sampling, SPC and design of experiments to improve our products. In the 1950s, we used quality cost and total quality control to bring about quality improvement. In the 1960s, zero defects and MIL-Q-9858A drove the quality improvement process. In the 1970s, quality circles, process qualification and supplier qualification became key quality issues. In the 1980s, employee training in problem solving, team activities and just-in-time inventory were the things to do.”

I find this statement so far from the truth that it would seriously damage any PDSA with this as an accepted assessment of history. I do not believe Deming had such an inaccurate view (of course I may be wrong). I do believe we need to improve our practice of Quality (and to do that we need to understand what happened in the past and why it was not more successful). The idea that Design of Experiments (DoE) was at the core of some Quality Movement to me is not at all accurate. Continue reading →

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