Predicting Improves Learning

Posted on May 10, 2007 by John Hunter

The Power of Prediction by Jared Spool:

By asking these questions up front, we give the team members something to focus on. When a participant gets stuck somewhere they predicted, it stands out. They can take pleasure in knowing they identified a potential landmine.

In our experience, it stands out even more when the participant gets stuck someplace nobody expected. These opportunities allow us a chance to learn something new about how users approach our designs.

Great idea. As I discussed in, Management is Prediction:

The critical issue is making the prediction, then comparing the results to that prediction and then figuring out how your original understanding can be improved based on the new data.

Personally I have found the act of actually making predictions and examining the results incredibly helpful in improving the speed and depth of my learning. You can also learn tendencies for missed predictions (predicting greater improvement, prediction faster adoption of new idea, underestimate additional costs required by new procedures…) and then adjust to make better predictions over time.

Related: Write it Down – Metrics and Software Development – Theory of Knowledge – Google: Experiment Quickly and Often

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