Comments on: Management is Prediction

By: lepine kong

lepine kong — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 16:22:30 +0000

One should remember that Deming and Shewhart always refer implicitely to probability theory from which they created spc (statistical process control).

The one main idea of spc is that you cannot make prediction like you learn at school with normal law that 95% of datas will be between 2 standard deviations if your process is not under control.

To achieve this state control and so be able to make prediction, they derived another tool PDSA which is a layman term for induction / deduction scientific process inherited since at least Aristotle circle.

By: Cliff Norman

Cliff Norman — Sat, 28 May 2011 15:47:21 +0000

Great discussion. The prerequisite for a prediction is some theory in use. In using the PDSA cycle, is important to frame questions that help people explicitly state their theory, especially if a team in involved. Merely answering yes or no, or guessing, does not make the theory explicit. I have seen instances where people will predict “yes” or “no” for two different reasons. The act of making the prediction can change how we collect data or run a test. Richard Feynman commented, “Science begins and ends in questions.” So should the science of improvement. Questions lead to predictions (theory being explicit), this leads to a plan for data collection and a test. Built into the PDSA cycle is the logic of deductive and inductive learning; Plan to Do (deductive)Study to Act (inductive). This iterative learning process was explored in Statistics for Experimenters by Box,Hunter and Hunter.

Best,

Cliff Norman (API)

By: CuriousCat: How to Get Ahead

CuriousCat: How to Get Ahead — Wed, 27 Jun 2007 18:11:59 +0000

I find that who says something is most often more important in predicting how people will react than what is said…

By: CuriousCat: Predicting Improves Learning

CuriousCat: Predicting Improves Learning — Fri, 11 May 2007 00:07:08 +0000

Personally I have found the act of actually making predictions and examining the results incredibly helpful in improving the speed and depth of my learning…

By: Knowledge Management - Management is Prediction

Knowledge Management - Management is Prediction — Sun, 21 Jan 2007 14:33:49 +0000

[...] The most important factor to me, is the value to improving management. The technology discussed here eventually could help lead to the adoption of Dr. Ackoff’s ideas on capturing corporate decision making which will allow evaluating decisions for systemic weakness and strengths to improve decision making. [...]

By: Curious Cat Management Improvement Blog » The Illusion of Understanding

Curious Cat Management Improvement Blog » The Illusion of Understanding — Sat, 25 Nov 2006 22:04:48 +0000

It is important to understand the systemic weaknesses in how we think in order to improve our thought process. We must question (more often than we believe we need to) especially when looking to improve on how things are done…

By: Curious Cat Management Improvement Blog » Blog Archive » Six Keys to Building New Markets by Unleashing Disruptive Innovation

Tue, 04 Jul 2006 15:14:14 +0000

[...] Very well put in my opinion. Unfortunately we do not often stop to examine the theory and therefore fail to learn as we should as we experiment and get new results. The most effective way I know of to improve the learning is to use the PDSA cycle, predict the effects of change and then examining the results of change. As simple as those two acts are, they are skipped far to frequently. [...]